Archive for December, 2008

Renesola (LON:SOLA / NYSE:SOL)

Tuesday, December 30th, 2008

My average is around 109 pence per share now and this baby is going to open at ~170 pence tomorrow. Will probably sell 250 shares and keep 750. I want more of this company :)

I still maintain my short WalMart idea however it’s not risen high enough to get in yet.

Markets seem to be staying up at the moment. I still maintain they will start to drop between xmas and January. I’m wondering if people are covering shorts for tax reasons? I’m not completely sure on how things work in the USA. I see a lot of people saying “I sold for tax reasons”, I guess it works the other way around too although shorts aren’t an asset.

Meanwhile on the other side of the pond…

Wednesday, December 24th, 2008

…China are sculpting the worlds largest santa…

http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/world/asia-pacific/7798718.stm

Clueless Brown at it again

Friday, December 19th, 2008

Another “hero” speech from Brown

Mr Brown told energy ministers that the high oil prices of recent years had stoked inflation and forced governments to keep interest rates much higher than would have otherwise been the case.

Oh yeah, 5.75% interest rates! That’s so high! What is the point he is trying to make? If interest rates were lower we wouldn’t be in the mess were in today? Wait, let me recap back to the reason were in this mess. Was it because people were very diciplined with regard to taking out credit while interest rates were so low? Oh wait, it was low interest rates and worthless western economies running on consumerism. Can you imagine the mess we’d be in if rates were already lower. BoE certainly wouldn’t have any room to cut, not that cutting the rates is going to make much difference anyway.

What a jobsworth.

Oil was high for a relatively tiny period. It was a bubble that started as an effect of this financial mess, not the cause of it. Roll on deflation, our crappy economy cannot continue as it was. Deflation is bad in the short term, but in the long term it will filter out the crap and make people realise you cannot built an economy on spending alone.

Deflation will favour people who have cash and savings. It will reverse the effect of all these interest rate cuts that are killing savings. On the flipside it will amplify debt. I’m not sure how countries as a whole deal with debt write offs.

Source: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7791269.stm

Update: http://news.bbc.co.uk/1/hi/uk_politics/7791985.stm

Nice, someone from OPEC agrees. Yes Mr Brown. Why don’t you cut taxes? Is it because you are a labour jobsworth with an Ideology synonymous to your party’s voters who want to get paid to do nothing?

Renesola (LON:SOLA / NYSE:SOL)

Thursday, December 18th, 2008

Managed to get my position of 1000 shares down to an average of 112.50 pence. Holding the 1000, will buy more on the dips.

Waiting for another big move down from the markets. Got a lot of cash at the moment and want to pickup bargains again. Will probably invest more heavily this time around.

Also bought 1000 shares of Level 3 Communications (LVLT). Just an impulse buy. Maximum loss is $700 so I’ll see how that one turns out.

We need more stimulus!

Thursday, December 18th, 2008

I’m fed up of hearing this. What a load of crap. Basically this translates to, our economy is the equivalent of a paraside that feeds on consumerism and cannot survive without people buying junk.

I also love the fact that over borrowing by the public got us into this mess and the government plans to get us out of it by borrowing more. Isn’t that the attitude gamblers take? Double down until you win? What a great idea Mr. Brown!

Why don’t you just fly to Las Vegas and put our entire country on red?

Short Wal-Mart (NYSE:WMT)

Monday, December 8th, 2008

People will say I’m crazy but that’s because people love bandwagons. Wal-Mart is a bandwagon stock. People have jumped on it because the economy is bad and everyone will shop for bargains.

If we look at the Wal-Mart valuation realistically though that is not going to happen. Wal-Mart was the stock to invest in 18 months ago as the bargain hunter stock. 

There are some problems with Wal-Mart and the fundamentals of the markets.

Wal-Mart has a P/E of 17 and is valued at $225B.
Dividend is nothing to write home about
A lot of other big blue chips are in the 10-12 P/E range
If Wal-Mart is a good bet when the economy is bad what happens when it recovers? Surely the growth will stop?
If the economy stays bad for a really long period of time surely we are going to go into deflation and see Wal-Mart profits drop too?
Deflation will lead to asset prices dropping further and big funds will have to give in and sell into the $225B monster
If the economy turns good I think investors will take their money out of Wal-Mart and start putting it elsewhere where larger growth prospects are.

You see, I cannot see any reason to not short Wal-Mart when it is in the $58+ range

Current holdings

Monday, December 8th, 2008

Nice rally today, I sold a lot into last weeks though.

Current holdings

4x NDAQ100 futures
100 Rio Tinto Shares
1000 SOLA Shares

I sold my 500 NVDA (Nvidia corp) last week at $7.75 and made 25c per share trading 500 last friday, wish I held on for the rally, but oh well it’s back down again. Also sold a NDAQ100 future today at 1200.

Lightened by position so I can concentrate more on work and load up if we dip down again.

Current Orders

BUY 500 NVDA @ $6
BUY 500 SOLA @ 90p 
BUY 1 NDAQ100 @ 1102

SELL 1000 SOLA @ 180p
SELL 100 RIO @ 1505p