Archive for November, 2008

Renesola

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

Google Finance: http://finance.google.com/finance?q=LON:SOLA

A huge selloff here on some news from JASO.

Just bought 1000 @ 134.25p

Limit sell set at 200p, will consider selling at 150p+ depending on other market conditions. Been wanting to get in on this company for a while though. Not sure about a  long term hold at the moment. The way the markets are at the moment a long term hold may not break even for 5/10 years.

Buy the fear, sell the party

Update: Bought 500 more at 95 and sold at 110 and 500 @ 90 and sold at 105. I want around 2000 shares of this company. I am going to keep trading and if it drops heavily enough i may commit to another 1000.

Great Depression 2.0

Wednesday, November 12th, 2008

I’m so glad I sold into the recent rally. I knew it wouldn’t last. Inflation is no longer an issue in the world. Depression is on the way. The only way we can generate inflation is to print trillions of dollars. Rate cuts do not inject that much money into the system.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?pid=20601087&sid=axScg04s0X38&refer=home

The reason inflation is not a worry any more is because cash is in short supply. All these hyper inflated assets are crashing in price. There is no liquidity in the markets to buy them and no one wants them because they are not worth anything.

I do not understand the BoE inflation targets though. Inflation has been over the target for the past couple of years. Why maintain such static numbers for inflation? Isn’t that childsplay? Surely we should be looking at long term inflation rather than just a one dimensional YoY basis. If inflation is 3% one year and 1% the next we’re looking good, why would we want to aim for 2%? We’ve had 5% inflation this year and he’s worried about a -1% drop in inflation. Considering what happened with oil in the past year it is not a surprise that we are deflating. Is he seriously saying we want higher oil prices just so our inflation number looks nice? Oil hit $145 and is now sat at $57. That is a good thing!

Our currency is getting killed at the moment too so that is surely sending prices of goods up?

I still don’t understand the obession with inflation targets and controlling the economy with the interest rate. It seems like the dumbest system ever. Isn’t there quite a bit more to the world than that?

Also why are they surprised that price of materials are sinking so much? If something goes up 100% then drops 50% it is back where it started. Yes a 50% drop sounds bad, but in the bigger picture it is really nothing. So long as things maintain equilibrium I do not see the point of fussing about deflation in commodities as an effect of a bubble.

Real deflation where everything starts dropping in price is an issue. I think that is on the way. Jobs are being cut heavily. Wait till unemployment rises and people are desperate for jobs. Supply will out weigh demand and wages will drop. That’s when we’re in for trouble, especially with the amount of debt around the world.

I’m glad the UK goverment holds all my debt and I’m sitting on a nice pile of cash. I can’t wait to go shopping!